Well. after sleeping on it, I got it to work. I don't know that it's efficient or bulletproof, but it functions. It also could use a rollover, but that's a disaster I'm not sure I want to think about at the moment 
So I located tpl_modules_categories_tabs by hunting the div in the dev toolkit. I split the output of $links_list[$i] into two variables:
$cathref - all of <a href blah>
$catname - just the text of the category name
I took your "prodname" example from the image titles readme as a base, and changed the expected filename to "cattab- . $catname". I kept your conditional intact and simply changed the output to wrap it in "$cathref" and "</a>"
Like i say, it works. It seems that there ought to be a better way to parse the URL though, that doesn't hang on hardcoded math like this. I also had the thought to lowercase the catname, but it wouldn't make the file completely case-insensitive, so I didn't bother.
PHP Code:
<?php
/**
* Module Template - categories_tabs
*
* Template stub used to display categories-tabs output
*
* @package templateSystem
* @copyright Copyright 2003-2005 Zen Cart Development Team
* @copyright Portions Copyright 2003 osCommerce
* @license http://www.zen-cart.com/license/2_0.txt GNU Public License V2.0
* @version $Id: tpl_modules_categories_tabs.php 3395 2006-04-08 21:13:00Z ajeh $
*/
include(DIR_WS_MODULES . zen_get_module_directory(FILENAME_CATEGORIES_TABS));
?>
<?php if (CATEGORIES_TABS_STATUS == '1' && sizeof($links_list) >= 1) { ?>
<div id="navCatTabsWrapper">
<div id="navCatTabs">
<ul>
<?php for ($i=0, $n=sizeof($links_list); $i<$n; $i++) { ?>
<li><?php
$catlink = $links_list[$i];
$posgt = strpos($catlink, '>'); //position of greater than in html
$posnlt = strpos($catlink, '<', $posgt); //position of less than after greater than
$cathref = substr($catlink, 0, ($posgt + 1)); //href portion of link for rewrite
$catname = substr($catlink, ($posgt + 1), -5); //cat name for image
echo (file_exists(DIR_WS_TEMPLATE . 'buttons/' . $_SESSION['language'] . '/cattab-' . $catname . '.gif')) ? $cathref . zen_image(DIR_WS_TEMPLATE . 'buttons/' . $_SESSION['language'] . '/cattab-' . $catname . '.gif') . "</a>" : $links_list[$i];
?></li>
<?php } ?>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<?php } ?>