I'm in the process of rebuilding a ZC 1.5.1 website into ZC 1.5.4, initially on my local XAMPP installation (PHP 5.4.27). I started using a fresh copy of ZC 1.5.4 and ran zc_install.
I then imported my v1.5.1 database into that installation's database and re-ran zc_install. The database upgrade process properly recognized that my database needed to go from v1.5.1 to v1.5.4. I entered my admin username and password and the database upgrade completed (seemingly) without error.
I then went to log into my renamed admin console, using the same credentials as those accepted during the database upgrade, to be met with the dreaded "You entered the wrong username or password" message.
So, I went back and tried it again (re-import database, re-database-upgrade) and this time when I entered the admin credentials, I was presented with the "Your password has expired ..." message. I verified (on the current 1.5.1 installation) that, in fact, my admin password had expired.
I don't know if the password expiration plays into some of the "can't log into admin after upgrade" reports, but thought that I'd at least note it here.
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