Deceased
- Join Date:
- Jan 2007
- Location:
- Australia
- Posts:
- 6,263
- Plugin Contributions:
- 4
Hoping to pick the brains of some old pros!
niccol:
We will let the readers of the thread decide if :
Option 1
I can't understand your point because it is far above my level of comprehension due to your superior intellect, knowledge and experience.Option 2
I can understand and think it is wrong.
You didn't leave much in the way of options here did you? I've decided Option#1 is the most probable, even though you do give me far more credit than I deserve and yourself less credit than you deserve.
The problem isn't you, the student. The problem is me, the teacher. I have failed in my task :(
This isn't fair to you, so I feel duty bound to try again with a slightly different approach.
I have a theory. 4 cylinder cars are faster than 8 cylinder cars (hey, I never said it was a good theory).
How can I prove my theory?
- I can read the manuals/specs of a range of 4 cylinder cars and compare them with the specs of a range of 8 cylinder cars, and I can ignore all the other specs and just take note of the top speeds specified for each, and I can come to a conclusion based on what has been written.
This isn't 'proof'... it is just an acknowledgement that I accept what the manuals have stated.
OR,
2) I can devise a test so I can see the results for myself.
I'll do the latter. A race!
For the race to show any useful results, I'm going to need need X number of 4 cylinder cars, and an equal number of 8 cylinder cars.
It just happens that I've got a got a friend with a Ford Dealership, He supplies me with 10x 4cylinder Fiesta's (identical in every way), and 10x8 cylinder Falcons (also identical in every way).
At the end of the race, I'll take the 1st 10 cars across the finish line and see how many of them have 8cylinders and how many have 4.
If my theory is correct (4 cylinders are faster than 8) I can reasonably expect most, if not all, of the cars to cross the finish line will be the 4cylinder Fiesta's. If the theory is incorrect I can reasonably expect most, if not all, of the cars to cross the finish line will be the 8cylinder Falcons.
Regardless of the outcome, I will be quite confident to state that my theory will been either proven or dis-proven. Agreed?
Wrong!. All this is doing is comparing one type of Ford Vehicle with another Ford Vehicle. It says nothing about the GM Holden’s or any other make of car. This is the problem we can expect if we attempt to 'make everything equal except the thing being tested'
The results (whatever they may be) will be hotly debated among the Ford and Holden supporters.
In order to prove/disprove my theory, I need to introduce other variables, specifically, a range of 4 cylinder cars from a range of makers, and a range of 8 cylinder cars from the same range of makers. For simplicity, lets say the new race consists of
5x 4 cylinder Holdens
5x 4 cylinder Fords
5x 8 cylinder Holdens
5x 8 cylinder Fords
The theory/test is still to see if the 4 cylinder cars are faster than the 8 cylinder cars.
At this point, some people will scream as loud as they can that this test/race will prove nothing because of the introduced/other variables, specifically the different makes of car, but the cars may also be different colours, some will have radios, others will have a CD player, etc,etc, (these are all irrelevant as far as the 4/8 theory is concerned).
The 'argument' being that all these other variables means we can't come to any valid conclusions in regards to the 4/8 cylinder question.
They may or may not have a point. We have no way of knowing unless we perform the test. (Strangely, those currently putting forth this argument aren't even interested in doing any testing because of these variables). I digress.
What are the some of the possible outcomes of this race?
a) The cars will cross the finish line in a somewhat random order.
b) The 4 cylinder Holdens will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Fords, etc
c) The 4 cylinder Fords will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Holdens, etc
d) The 8 cylinder Holdens will take the lead positions followed by The 8 cylinder Fords, etc
e) The 8 cylinder Fords will take the lead positions followed by The 8 cylinder Holdens, etc
f) The 8 cylinder Holdens will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Holdens, etc
g) The 8 cylinder Fords will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Fords, etc
h) The 4 cylinder cars take the lead positions (in no particular order) followed by the 8 cylinder cars (no particular order)
i) The 8 cylinder cars take the lead positions (in no particular order) followed by the 4 cylinder cars (no particular order)
..... and so on.
Can we come to any valid conclusions from any of these results? Some will say no. I say Yes.
a) The cars will cross the finish line in a somewhat random order.
Conclusion: Neither the make of car, or the number of cylinders have any bearing in which is faster. (an unlikely result in this scenario. Theory neither proven or unproven)
b) The 4 cylinder Holdens will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Fords, etc
Conclusion: The 4 cylinder cars are faster than 8 cylinder cars, and the 4 cylinder Holdens are faster than the 4 cylinder Fords
c) The 4 cylinder Fords will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Holdens, etc
*Conclusion: The 4 cylinder cars are faster than 8 cylinder cars, and the 4 cylinder Fords are faster than 4 cylinder Holdens
*
d) The 8 cylinder Holdens will take the lead positions followed by The 8 cylinder Fords, etc
Conclusion: The 8 cylinder cars are faster than 4 cylinder cars, and The 8 cylinder Holdens are faster than the 8 cylinder Fords
e) The 8 cylinder Fords will take the lead positions followed by The 8 cylinder Holdens, etc
Conclusion: The 8 cylinder cars are faster than 4 cylinder cars, and The 8 cylinder Fords are faster than the 8 cylinder Holdens
f) The 8 cylinder Holdens will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Holdens, etc
*Conclusion: Holdens are faster than Fords, regardless of engine size *
g) The 8 cylinder Fords will take the lead positions followed by The 4 cylinder Fords, etc
*Conclusion: Fords are faster than Holdens, regardless of engine size
*
h) The 4 cylinder cars take the lead positions (in no particular order) followed by the 8 cylinder cars (no particular order)
*Conclusion: The 4 cylinder cars are faster than 8 cylinder cars, regardless of make. (This unlikely outcome will prove my theory that 4 cylinders are faster.
*
i) The 8 cylinder cars take the lead positions (in no particular order) followed by the 4 cylinder cars (no particular order)
Conclusion: The 8 cylinder cars are faster than 4 cylinder cars, regardless of make. (This is the most likely and expected outcome, which will disprove my theory that 4 cylinders are faster)
**In all cases (except 'a') the results clearly show, first and foremost, whether 4 cylinder cars are faster than 8 cylinder cars (or not), with a possible *secondary observation *as to whether Fords are Faster than Holdens (or not). **
In other words, this one test/race, with added variables, tells us more about whether the 4/8 cylinder theory is correct (or not) than if there were no other variables at all.
If the theory was to test if Holdens' are faster than Fords, we can use the exact same results to prove/disprove this theory to, with a ** possible *secondary observation ***as to whether 4 cylinder cars are faster than 8 cylinder cars (or not).
Summary: We do NOT need to 'consider every possible variable' in order for any given test to be considered 'valid'.
The conclusions derived from any given test is dependent in what the test is designed to prove/disprove and 'other' variables will be of only secondary importance.
End of lesson.
If I fail you this time, I will need to refer you to another teacher... I think 'bn' may be a good candidate.
Rod